NFL Betting Trends – Everything to Know

NFL betting trends

What are NFL betting trends?

When making sports betting wagers, there are different things handicappers use to ensure profit. Sometimes, no matter what we do, we can’t make a profit. Things don’t go our way.

But there are things we can do to boost our chances of making big scores and beating the book. One of those things is using sports betting trends. By far, the most trends are NFL betting trends.

The reason? The NFL, even the NFL preseason, attracts more money bet dollars than any other U.S.-based sport.

NFL betting trends have become the tool many handicappers use to boost their chances of success. For some handicappers, NFL betting trends have eclipsed stats as the go-to information before a money percentages player throws down real dollars.

This is especially true for the regular season. Double-digit underdogs can do well during the regular season. So it’s in the best interest of an NFL betting trends player to jump all over the dogs when they arise.

  • If we find an underdog on the money line, we could make a considerable profit depending on the money wagered. NFL betting trends help us discover which

Determining important NFL games trends

NFL games aren’t static; things change from play to play and call to call. We must recognize the most significant NFL betting trends.

Since all NFL betting trends aren’t created equal, check out this quick list of NFL betting trends before a further dive.

NFL Betting Trends – The List

  • NFL playoff games trends
  • NFL games regular season trends
  • NFL betting trends tied to money percentages
  • NFL betting trends – other sports betting relationship
  • NFL Super Bowl trends
  • NFL home games trends
  • NFL head coach trends
  • NFL betting trends – public money
  • NFL home underdogs 
  • NFL two teams’ trends
  • NFL team covers trends
  • NFL Playoffs trends

Those are just some of the trends. Now, let’s dive deeper.

The power of NFL Playoff games trends

The power of NFL Playoff games trends

Every season, the NFL plays a determined number of NFL playoff contests. Because of the limited number of NFL playoff matchups, NFL playoff betting trends are also limited.

One of the critical NFL betting trends in the playoffs involves players. Single bet, half point bets, and any bet type you make in an NFL playoff game should revolve around NFL betting trends that affect a player.

For example, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is 11-3 in the playoffs. That’s one of the most potent NFL betting trends ever. Ride the Chiefs if you don’t know who you like come next season’s playoffs.

NFL Super Bowl trends

NFL Super Bowl trends

Ah, the Super Bowl! Is there another event during the year where sports betting fans of all persuasions drop everything they’re doing and endlessly look for NFL betting trends?

Nope. The NCAA Tournament is close. So are the Champions League and Premier League. But nobody spends as much time looking for betting trends for a single game as we do for the Super Bowl.

The issue is that every Super Bowl is different. Every game is different, of course, but we can determine how the home underdog and how favorites will perform in home games during the regular season.

It’s not so easy when it comes to the Super Bowl. Public money on Super Bowl favorites is almost always false. Then again, the public has become better at determining which teams deserve to be the favorite.

In the last Super Bowl, the Kansas City Chiefs were underdogs that pulled out a victory. But KC, let’s be honest, probably should have lost the game to the favored Eagles.

The money from casual and public bettors went to the Eagles early, which was the right call. Only later did the money flow to the Chiefs, and the money went to the Chiefs because of Patrick Mahomes and his fantastic record in the playoffs.

Bread & Butter – NFL Regular Season Against the Spread Trends

NFL Regular Season Against the Spread Trends

NFL straight games trends

Straight game NFL betting trends involve picking the winner of a game to take the victory straight up. One of the most profitable straight game bets is to back underdogs.

Sharp action sometimes follows straight game picks. But it doesn’t often happen. In the NFL playoffs, sharp action bettors like throwing money onto underdogs to win.

The Chiefs were dogs against Cincinnati in a home game during the 2023 playoffs. The NFL betting trends favored the Bengals.

NFL straight games trends

So NFL betting trends players jumped all over Joe Burrow to beat KC. It didn’t work out well, and the home underdogs knocked out their favored opponents.

The Bills are a notoriously bad straight NFL betting trends team. Buffalo has become a chalk bettors’ nightmare.

The Buffalo Bills end up losing games they should win. No doubt, teams like the Bills show trends where they win by double digits. But the team often fails during the regular season to get it done.

Stay away from teams like Buffalo. Don’t push for a bigger payout by adding a Bills money line or Buffalo team covers. Pay attention to these rules when it comes to straight game money line trends.

  1. Only use betting trends that involve home versus road, or road versus home
  2. Don’t use betting trends that aren’t easy to understand – ex. The 49ers are 8-0 SU when they play on grass in an opposing stadium against a team that has lost three money line regular season games.
  3. Never bet on an NFL team to win SU that is a double digits NFL favorite against the spread – you must lay way too much for minimal profit
  4. Beware of games where everyone is on board that the chalk will cover and win. Those games often go the other way. 
  5. Never, ever, don’t even consider adding huge SU favorites to NFL betting parlays to boost payout. You will kill your parlay for sure. 

NFL money bet over under total trends

NFL money bet over under total trends

Using NFL betting trends over under-total wagers is popular. NFL betting handicappers aren’t the only ones who throw down money on total sports plays.

For casual players like most of us, NFL betting totals can lead to profit, but it’s not where we will make our most money. NFL betting totals can be a disaster because Vegas lines are adept at attracting the same amount of money on both sides.

We can study one team from last season to realize that NFL betting totals can be a fool’s game. The Miami Dolphins went 9-8 against the spread.

The over was a losing 8-9 in Miami Dolphins games. The over went 6-11 in Tampa Bay games.

But this is what’s crazy. The Fins averaged 23.4 points per game and allowed over 24 in each contest.

Tampa was among the highest-scoring teams in the 2021-2022 season. So the NFL betting trends pointed to TB scoring many points this season. Tom Brady and the Bucs failed to average 20 in each contest.

The thing to remember is that betting trends are almost meaningless when it comes to NFL totals. Why?

Vegas anticipates. They don’t care about NFL betting trends. NFL bettors can become experts at making over-under bets.

But it takes time and effort and requires a deep understanding of NFL strategy, so although total handle has continued to rise on over/under NFL betting, NFL betting profit has stayed the same.

Bread & Better – NFL betting on Team Covers – Against the Spread

NFL betting on Team Covers - Against the Spread

By far, spread NFL betting is the most potent way for NFL betting handicappers to make money. The half point hook can definitely kill spread bets, but the half point hook can also work in our favor.

Regarding trends, NFL betting ATS trends are the most powerful. However, trends only sometimes help us make winning bets. Check out trends you should think about heading into the upcoming season.

  • Three straight games or more – This is a powerful trend. When a team covers against the spread in three straight or more games, it’s a legit trend.
  • 4-1 or more NFL betting trends – The 1 is the key. Once the 1 becomes a 2, the NFL betting trend loses power.
  • Home team or road team trends – Home team trends and road team trends are the most powerful in NFL betting.
  • Underdog percentage against favorite NFL betting trends – Vegas anticipates where the money will go, so we should always consider backing the dog when an underdog performs well against the NFL betting spread versus a favorite.

2022-2023 NFL Game Trends – Top 10 ATS Teams

  1. New York Giants 13-4
  2. Cincinnati Bengals 12-3-1
  3. Detroit Lions 12-5-0
  4. Los Angeles Chargers 11-5-1
  5. San Francisco 49ers 11-6
  6. Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6-1
  7. Tennessee Titans 9-6-2
  8. Dallas Cowboys 9-7-1
  9. Atlanta Falcons 9-8-0
  10. Carolina Panthers 9-8-0

Remember, Vegas oddsmakers have the same info we get. Well, they get more information than we do. So we can dump on the Giants in 2023-2024.

Dallas was the best team against the spread in the 2021-2022 NFL Season. The Boys fell to eighth on the 2022-2023 list. So when using trends, don’t consider the past to be the future.

Always consider trends in terms of today’s bet, the NFL game you are studying at the moment.

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