NFL Picks Week 4: Miami Travels to Buffalo in Sunday’s Top Matchup

The National Football League kicks off their incredible week 4 on Thursday night when the Green Bay Packers host the Detroit Lions. Then on Sunday, Miami tackles the Bills in Buffalo and the Dallas Cowboys host the New England Patriots. See below for NFL Betting Man picks for every game on the NFL Week 4 schedule. 

How to watch or stream Packers' primetime showdown with Lions in Week 2

NFL Week 4 Picks

Thursday, Sep 28

Detroit Lions -1 at Green Bay Packers

Detroit pulled away from the Atlanta Falcons in their last, but this game is something entirely different. Beating the Falcons at home is one thing.

Beating a Green Pay Packers squad with a quarterback gaining confidence is another. Jordan Love rallied the Packers to an 18-17 victory over the Saints. Green Bay wins another. 

Week 4 Pick: Green Bay Packers +1 
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NFL Week 4 Games

Sunday, October 1

Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars -3

The Atlanta rushing attack could cause Jacksonville major problems. Bijan Robinson may be the most electrifying running back to enter the league since Adrian Peterson.

The Jaguars did not play well versus Houston’s defense. It’s difficult seeing the Jags picking it up against an Atlanta team that always puts forth a decent effort. Taking the 3 points makes sense. 

Week 4 Pick: Atlanta Falcons +3

Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts -1.5

The Colts played fantastic ball when upsetting the Ravens in Baltimore. However, Lamar Jackson and his mates missed seven starters. So we can’t read too much into the win.

The Rams blew three chances inside the red zone and had to settle for field goals versus the Cincinnati Bengals. The Colts will be difficult to beat at home, but LAR is the better team. 

Week 4 Pick: Los Angeles Rams +1.5
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Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles -8

Buffalo brought the 2-0 Washington Commanders back down to earth. The Commanders’ defense had no answer for the Buffalo Bills offense. Josh Allen shook off the best defensive line in the league and did anything he wanted.

Philadelphia went into Tampa Bay and finally got it going. The Eagles looked great on both sides of the ball. Philly covers.

Week 4 Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -8 

Denver Broncos -3 at Chicago Bears

It’s tough to make Denver the favorite over any team. Sure, Chicago is the worst team in the NFL, but the Broncos gave up 70 points to Miami in their last. The problem with Denver is that the team has zero urgency. They’re a mess.

Justin Fields is a great rushing quarterback. So if the Bears tweak the offense this week, Fields could outplay Russell Wilson.

Week 4 Pick: Chicago Bears +3 
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints -3

Jameis Winston is good enough to lead the Saints to a win and cover versus his old team, the Buccaneers. Even if Winston isn’t at his best on Sunday, Baker Mayfield will struggle versus the Saints’ defense.

Week 4 Pick: New Orleans -3 

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns -2.5

We really want to back the Ravens. Baltimore has the makings of a Super Bowl winner. We’re not that sure about the Browns. So our heart is with Lamar and his buds.

But as of Wednesday morning, the Ravens have listed 9 starters as questionable. Even if only half sit out, the Browns should cover the spread.

Week 4 Pick: Cleveland Browns -2.5 
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Minnesota Vikings -3.5 at Carolina Panthers

Carolina’s defense should be in some trouble. No Shaq Thompson. No Jaycee Horn. Now, Xavier Woods is out 4 to 6 weeks.

If Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and the rest can’t beat a banged up Carolina Panthers squad by at least 4, forfeiting the rest of their games might be the best option.

Week 4 Pick: Minnesota Vikings -3.5 

Buffalo Bills -6.5 at Washington Commanders 

Buffalo bounced back from the loss to the Jets with a dominating victory against the Raiders. But the game happened in Buffalo. 

On Sunday, the Bills travel to Washington. The Commanders are 2-0, have gained confidence, and should pose some issues for Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense. D.C. covers.

Week 3 Pick: Commanders +6.5  
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Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud showed why he was the second pick in this past April’s Draft. Stroud played a great game to lead the Houston Texans to an upset victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

But on Sunday, Stroud faces one of the elite defenses in the NFL. Pittsburgh won’t win pretty, don’t expect a 56 to 21 game. The Steelers will win, though, and they will cover.

Week 4 Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3  

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills -2.5

In Sunday’s top matchups, the Buffalo Bills host the Miami Dolphins hoping to slow down the NFL’s best offense.

Miami has looked unstoppable in wins against the Chargers, Patriots, and Broncos. Ah, but that’s just it, right? The Dolphins have beaten teams that had flaws. The Bolts don’t have a great defense. The Broncos are a disaster and the Patriots’ offense has yet to gel.

Buffalo is the AFC version of the San Francisco 49ers. Sounds crazy, but Bills to cover the -2.5 is the best bet in NFL Week 4.

NFL Week 4 Pick: Buffalo Bills -2.5  
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Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 at Tennessee Titans

Tennessee imploded in a devastating loss to the Cleveland Browns on the road in NFL Week 3. Things won’t get any better for Tennessee on Sunday.

The Bengals project to play excellent football after managing a win over a good team in the Los Angeles Rams. Cincinnati’s offense will continue to improve in this. The Titans biggest issue will be dealing with the Bengals’ pass rush. Expect Ryan Tannehill to suffer another long afternoon.

NFL Week 4 Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5  

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers -5.5

Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a concussion in the Raiders Sunday night loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Whether Jimmy G. plays or not, the Chargers should have no trouble taking it to Vegas in this.

LAC is simply the better team. At least a 6 point win won’t be an issue.

NFL Week 4 Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -5.5   
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Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers -14

Arizona pulled off a massive upset when beating the Dallas Cowboys. However, the Cards faced a Boys team that had to re-adjust after a Thursday before Sunday injury to star cornerback Tevan Diggs.

SF has no such injury issues. Also, the 49ers have scored 30 points in 3 straight while the defense hasn’t yielded more than 23 and that was against Matthew Stafford and the Rams. The Niners cover.

NFL Week 4 Pick: San Francisco 49ers -14  

New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys -7

Dallas could bounce back with a decent game, but the likelier scenario is Bill O’Brien and Mac Jones take advantage of a Big D defense that has to change strategy now that Tevan Diggs is out.

The Patriots offense has yet to gel. It’s shown signs, though, in a loss to Miami and a win against the Jets. Sure, the Jets played Zach Wilson. Jones and the Pats offense still had to manage 15 points versus one of the best defenses in the NFL. Without Diggs, the Dallas defense must prove it remains elite.

If you like our thesis, consider backing the Pats on the money line because we all know that on the other side of the ball, Bill Belichick wins the battle against Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy.

NFL Week 4 Pick: New England Patriots +7  

Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 at New York Jets

The Jets offense has no chance of keeping up against a Patrick Mahomes led unit that is starting to fire on all cylinders. Zach Wilson just isn’t a good enough quarterback to lead NYJ.

Also, the Jets’ offensive line is a problem and Chris Jones has had two straight fantastic games since returning to the field. Chiefs win by at least 10.

NFL Week 4 Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -9.5  
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Monday, October 2

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants -1.5

Saquon Barkley won’t play for the Giants. More important than Barkley’s injury is that the Giants show 3 starters along the offensive line: LT Andrew Thomas, RT Evan Neal, and LG Ben Bredeson, as questionable.

If even one of those players sits out, the Seahawks win this by 3 or more for sure. Seattle all the way.

NFL Week 4 Pick: Seattle Seahawks