NFL MVP Betting Odds: Magic Mahomes and Joe Cool Lead This Season’s MVP Race

Most experts and betting odds gurus believe the 2023-2024 NFL MVP race will come down to AFC rivals Joe Burrow with the Cincinnati Bengals and Patrick Mahomes with the Kansas City Chiefs. Check out the NFL Betting Man take on which MVP contenders should be on your radar.

2023-2024 NFL MVP Odds

  • Patrick Mahomes +600
  • Joe Burrow +700
  • Josh Allen +800
  • Justin Herbert +900
  • Jalen Hurts +1200
  • Lamar Jackson +1600
  • Aaron Rodgers +1600
  • Trevor Lawrence +1600
  • Tua Tagovailoa +1600
  • Dak Prescott +1600
  • Justin Fields +200
  • Deshaun Watson +2500
  • Geno Smith +3000
  • Jared Goff +3000
  • Derek Carr +3000
  • Brock Purdy +3000
  • Russell Wilson +4000
  • Jordan Love +5000
  • Kirk Cousins +5000

Best Bet: Joe Burrow +700

This season, the oddsmakers believe in Joe Cool. Burrow threw for 35 touchdowns, 4,475 yards, and 12 interceptions last season. In 2023, Burrow could increase his yards thrown, touchdowns tossed, and decrease his picks. 

Cincinnati signed Patrick Mahomes’ left tackle from last season, Orlando Brown Jr. With Brown Jr. protecting Mahomes’ blindside, the exceptional QB won his second MVP.

Brown Jr. projects to boost Burrow’s chances of winning the NFL’s top individual award. Joe Cool has done remarkable things without a talented left tackle protecting his blind side. This season, Burrow will have more time, which is bad news for NFL defenses. 

Top Overlay: Jalen Hurts +1200

If you only look at Jalen Hurts’ passing stats, you might think he had an okay, but not exceptional season. The Philadelphia Eagles starting quarterback threw for 3,701 yards and 22 touchdowns.

Hurts had just 6 picks, which means he’s one of the more careful signal-callers in the league. But even with the low interception stat, NFL betting handicappers may wonder why he’s this season’s best overlay play.

Jalen isn’t just an exceptional passer. He’s also an incredible rusher. Hurts rumbled for 760 yards in 2022. He scored 13 rushing touchdowns.

Fantasy football aficionados know that Hurts could lead their team to victory, which is why he’s flying off the board early in many fantasy football drafts. 

Jalen Hurts is a bargain at 12-to-1 NFL MVP betting odds. We can’t forget that Hurts’ passing skills are still developing. So Jalen has plenty of upside, which means his MVP chances are much better than the odds indicate. 

Best Underdog Play: Russell Wilson +4000

Russ’s first season in Denver was a disaster. Wilson had never completed less than 63.1% of his passes in his NFL career until 2022 when Russell completed 60.5% of his throws.

The 60.5% is downright awful. We’re talking worse than some backups in the league. So to say Wilson has pressure after signing the massive contract with the Ponies is an understatement. If Wilson doesn’t pick it up this season, the Broncos will have no choice but to find a way out of the 5-year $242,588,236 contract. 

Russ, like Denver’s front office, also knows what’s at stake, which is why when the first thing new head coach Sean Payton did, tell Wilson he could no longer bring his personal QB coach to practices, Russell agreed.

Payton could have gone to numerous franchises. The former New Orleans Saints head coach decided Denver was the best place for him because the Broncos a) have a great defense and b) have Russell Wilson.

If Payton can’t get Wilson to play his best, Russ won’t touch the NFL MVP award. The guess here, though, is that Sean believes he’ll turn around Russell’s career. We’ve made it a habit of not arguing with winners like Sean Payton.

So from the NFL Betting Man perspective, the +4000 NFL MVP betting odds on Wilson to win the most valuable player award makes Russell an incredible overlay. If Payton can get Russ to play like Drew Brees in Sean’s first season in New Orleans, watch out. 

Denver will not only contend with Kansas City for the AFC West Division title, but Wilson will be on the short list of MVP contenders. If you agree, pull the trigger before NFL Week 1. After NFL Week 1, Wilson’s odds should be much lower than 40-to-1.  

Stay Away From Patrick Mahomes & Tua Tagovailoa

Why is Patrick Mahomes a bad bet to repeat as MVP?

It’s tough to win back-to-back NFL Most Valuable Player awards. Sure, Aaron Rodgers completed the repeat in 2020 and 2021.

But before AR, we have to go back to 2008 and 2009 when Peyton Manning won back-to-back. Not only is the Magic One trying to repeat as NFL MVP, but he must do so breaking in a new left tackle.

Donovan Smith, the new LT, is a solid offensive lineman. But Smith isn’t on Brown Jr.’s level. If you struggle to protect your quarterback’s blind side, Mahomes is right-handed, your QB will struggle.

Mahomes struggling still puts him in the top five for the season but Patrick won’t play well enough to win another MVP.

Why is Tua Tagovailoa a bad NFL MVP betting odds to win the hardware?

There is one word that sums up why Tua won’t win NFL MVP. The word is concussions. Tua suffered two major concussions last season. 

The concussions were so bad, that some Dolphins fans begged Tagovailoa to call it quits. Tua has said he will stay healthy this season, but do we know for sure?

Tagovailoa is a concussion away from ending his NFL career. Tua even said he contemplated retirement after speaking to his family. So although Tagovailoa may post good enough stats to win NFL MVP, he’s tough a player to back. 

If you do like Tua, demand much higher NFL future odds than the +1600 he’s offering in preseason.  

Top Non-QB to Win NFL MVP: Christian McCaffrey +150000

To beat out quarterbacks and win NFL MVP, you must dominate. But before dominating, you must get enough touches to dominate. Only one player should get enough touches to force MVP voters to consider throwing him a couple of votes.

The player, San Francisco running back Christian McCaffrey, should lead the 49ers in rushing yards and touchdowns, but CM could also lead the Niners in catches. McCaffrey played quarterback in high school.

So the incredible athlete can also pass the ball. If McCaffrey ends up with 1,800 rushing yards, 75 catches for 1,500 yards, 6 touchdown passes, and a combined 20 touchdowns for rushing and receiving, he’ll win NFL MVP. 

He will also have had the greatest season of any single player in the history of professional football, which tells us Christian’s chances of lifting the MVP award aren’t great. Lighting has struck in the past, though. So if you believe it strikes this season, go for it.