NFL Picks Week 1: Lions at Chiefs Kicks Off the 2023-2024 NFL Season

The 2023-2024 NFL Season kicks off on Thursday when one of the most important NFL Week 1 games of the season happens between defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City and the Detroit Lions. Check out the NFL betting picks for Lions at Chiefs and every other NFL game happening in week 1.  

NFL Week 1 Picks

Thursday, Sep 7

Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 

In the first of our picks for NFL week 1, the Kansas City Chiefs offer underlay odds to cover versus the Detroit Lions on Thursday. The Chiefs’ shouldn’t miss a beat in this, but Detroit is good enough to hang with KC.

In fact, the Lions’ offense may surpass the Chiefs’ this season. One thing that could benefit Detroit’s defense is that Donovan Smith takes over for Orlando Brown Jr. at left tackle. Detroit +6.5 is the play. 

NFL Week 1 PickS: Detroit +6.5
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NFL Week 1 Games

Sunday, Sep 10

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons -3

The Panthers will start top draft pick Bryce Young at quarterback. Although Young should be a decent starter in the league, his first game could end in a blowout loss.

Carolina’s offensive line is a mess and Atlanta has a great rushing attack and nice defense. The ATL rolls. 

NFL Week 1 Picks: Atlanta -3 

Cincinnati Bengals -1 at Cleveland Browns 

No doubt, the NFL spread betting line will change once bettors realize Joe Burrow will play. Burrow should have no trouble lighting up the Browns’ secondary because Orlando Brown Jr. will protect Joe Cool’s blindside.

Brown Jr. is one of the reasons Patrick Mahomes posted good enough stats to win the NFL most valuable player  hardware last season. The jury is out on Deshaun Watson and the Browns’ offense. Bengals cover ATS no matter how high the spread goes.  

NFL Week 1 Picks: Cincinnati ATS  
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Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5 at Indianapolis Colts

Colts starting quarterback Anthony Richardson could have an excellent season. Richardson is likely to have the most success among the rookie quarterbacks.

But AR 2.0 as some have gotten to calling him, Aaron Rodgers is the original AR, has a tough first assignment. Richardson faces one of the top defenses in the league. Trevor Lawrence and the Jags’ offense is also stellar. At -3.5, the Jags are an overlay. 

Week 1 Pick: Jacksonville -3.5 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings -6.5

Most NFL experts believe Kirk Cousins to Justin Jefferson is this season’s top quarterback to wide reciever combination. But the Minnesota offense is much different this season than last.

Kirk to Justin may have benefited from Adam Thielen and running back Dalvin Cook on the team. Minnesota’s offense could be less effective in 2023 without Thielen and Cook.

Tampa quarterback Baker Mayfield is a good player. He’ll have the Bucs motoring to the end zone because the Vikings’ defense is a mess.

NFL Week 1 PickS: Tampa Bay +6.5 
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Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints -3.5

Tennessee is getting much love and the writers here at NFL Betting Man have no idea why. The Titans fielded the NFL’s worst pass defense in 2023.

The Saints will benefit from Derek Carr under center. Not only that, but wide receiver Michael Thomas is one-hundred percent. Thomas and second year WR Chris Olave should punish the Titans’ D. 

NFL Week 1 Picks: New Orleans -3.5 

San Francisco 49ers  -2.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers

On paper, this could end in a rout with San Francisco destroying the Steeler. Ah, but at the time of this writing, Tuesday afternoon, the Steelers remain just a +2.5 home dog.

When NFL bet spread lines don’t move, it’s a sign the underdog can get it done. Still, it’s difficult seeing the Niners losing this. So we must assume SF grabs at least a 3-point victory. 

Week 1 Pick: San Francisco -2.5 
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Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders -6

We understand. You saw the line that had D.C. at -6 and thought . . . what? We get it. The Commanders have been one of the NFL’s worst franchises for a while. 

But this season, Washington should battle for a playoff spot. Sam Howell has the look of a fantastic young quarterback and Eric Bienemy is calling the plays. 

Also, D.C. will boast the best defensive line in the league. Because the Cardinals must start Joshua Dobbs or Clayton Tune at quarterback, Washington rolls to a win and cover. 

Week 1 Pick: Washington -6 

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens -9.5

Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud will struggle in this game. Not only are the Edgar Allan Poes at home, but Baltimore also fields one of the league’s top D’s.

Lamar Jackson finally has legit wide receiver targets. Ravens cover what looks like a massive line but in reality isn’t. 

Week 1 Pick: Baltimore -9.5 
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Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears -2.5

Yes, Justin Fields and the Bears get the Packers at home, and, yes, Chicago’s offense should be difficult to keep from scoring points. But Jordan Love is a good quarterback. 

Love has spent his career learning from Aaron Rodgers. So we should expect JL to hit the ground running. Also, the Packers’ D is much better than Chicago’s. 

NFL Week 1 Pick: Green Bay +2.5 

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Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos -3.5

It’s tough to back the Raiders to keep this one close. Sean Payton returns to the NFL for the first time since calling the shots for the New Orleans Saints.

Payton had his choice of head coaching jobs. So the fact he landed in Denver means Sean has ultimate faith in the Denver defense and believes he can turn around Russell Wilson’s career. The Broncos could run up the score in this matchup.

NFL Week 1 Pick: Denver -3.5 
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Philadelphia Eagles -4 at New England Patriots

The line on Eagles at Patriots hasn’t moved from Philly -4. What it tells us is that New England might have a shot to at least cover the spread. 

One thing to note is that the Eagles have a brand new group of starting linebackers. Philadelphia also has new players in the secondary. The Patriots’ offensive coordinator, Bill O’Brien, should find ways to exploit Philly’s defensive changes. Pats to cover is a solid play. 

NFL Week 1 Pick: New England +4 

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers -2.5

Both teams have excellent offenses and decent defenses. The difference should be with the head coaches. 

Chargers head coach Brandon Staley doesn’t always make the right call. Mike McDaniel had great success as a rookie head coach last season. This season, McDaniel will have the Fins on the verge of the Super Bowl. The quest starts with an upset victory over the Bolts. 

NFL Week 1 PickS: Miami +2.5  
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Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks -5.5

Rams versus Seahawks used to be a great rivalry. Not this season. The Rams may be the worst team in the NFL in 2023.

Seattle is good enough to make it to the playoffs. So the Seahawks should cover what amounts to an overlay NFL spread betting line. 

NFL Week Pick: Seattle +5.5 

Dallas Cowboys -3.5 at New York Giants

It’s difficult to understand why Dallas is a -3.5 road favorite. The Cowboys aren’t much better than the Giants.

In fact, a case can be made that the Giants have the overall better roster. NYG gets their rivals in a Sunday night game at MetLife Stadium. So for sure, consider backing the Giants on the money line. Taking the 3.5 points is a no-brainer. 

NFL Week 1 Pick: NYG +3.5


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Monday, Sep 11

Buffalo Bills -2.5 at New York Jets 

The Jets should be the chalk in this matchup. The photo above says it all. Josh Allen struggles against the New York Jets’ D. 

The Jets acquired Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers gets to throw to Garrett Wilson, one of the up and coming wideouts in pro football. In the last of our picks for NFL week 1, take the Jets to win this one straight up. 

NFL Week 1 PickS: NYJ +2.5