NFL Picks Week 12: Thanksgiving Thursday Sets the Tone

NFL Thanksgiving Thursday kicks off this year like it does every year, with the Detroit Lions hosting a rival at Ford Field. The Lions are a big time -7.5 home chalk against the Packers. Also on Thursday, Dallas takes on rival Washington in Arlington and then in the night capper, Geno Smith and the Seahawks battle Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers. Check out NFL betting odds for NFL Week 12 along with picks for every game on the NFL Week 12 schedule.

Week 12 NFL Picks

NFL Thanksgiving Thursday – November 23

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions -7.5

Jordan Love has some talent but Green Bay’s quarterback is much better at Lambeau over the Packers’ grass than he is on the road.

Not only that, but Detroit often steps it up on NFL Turkey Day. So the Lions, who have the best record in the NFC after the 1-loss Philadelphia Eagles, should have no trouble scoring the cover victory.

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NFL Week 12 Pick: Detroit Lions -7.5

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys -10.5

Dallas is one of the best teams in the NFL. The Commanders most certainly aren’t. How bad is D.C. this season?

Washington fell to the New York Giants at home via a 31-17 score in their last. What makes the loss so alarming is that D.C. was a -9.5 home favorite. Cowboys roll.

NFL Week 12 Pick: Dallas Cowboys -10.5
San Francisco 49ers -7 at Seattle Seahawks

It’s tough to back the Seahawks against anybody right now, much less versus the San Francisco 49ers. Seattle is playing bad football. In their latest debacle, the Seahawks fell to the Rams via a 17-16 score.

The Niners rolled the Jaguars in NFL Week 10. Then in NFL Week 11, Brock Purdy torched Tampa’s secondary. San Francisco grabs another win and cover.

NFL Week 12 Pick: San Francisco 49ers -7

NFL Black Friday – November 24

Miami Dolphins -7.5 at New York Jets

The Jets finally pulled the plug on the Zach Wilson experiment. Wilson, the second pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, is a wreck. Some great college quarterbacks can’t translate their skills to the pros and Wilson appears to be one of those former college stars.

However, it’s difficult to see how the J-E-T-S upgraded the position by handing the pigskin to Tim Boyle. Miami’s offense hasn’t play great ball lately, but it should do enough for the win and cover.

NFL Week 12 Pick: Miami Dolphins -7.5
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NFL Week 12 Games – Sunday, November 26

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons -1.5

Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas lists as doubtful and cornerback Marshon Lattimore lists as questionable. Quarterback Derek Carr also lists as questionable.

Ah, but even if Carr can’t go, Jameis Winston is better than anybody on the other sideline. Also, the Saints love beating the Falcons on the road.

NFL Week 12 Pick: New Orleans Saints -1.5

Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 at Cincinnati Bengals

Like Buffalo defensive-minded coach Sean McDermott, Pittsburgh HC Mike Tomlin decided he had enough with the Steelers offensive coordinator, Matt Canada.

Canada had to go. The Steelers will rally around new play-caller Mike Sullivan, who will open the playbook for second year pro Kenny Pickett. If the Steelers get it going on offense, forget Cincinnati winning this game because the Bengals must play the rest of the season without Joe Burrow.

NFL Week 12 Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5
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Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 at Houston Texans

Jags versus Texans is for first place in the AFC South. That’s a crazy thought considering most pegged the Texans as one of the worst teams in the league heading into the season.

Houston is for real because DeMeco Ryans decided to draft both of his highest rated players on the Texans’ NFL Draft board, Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud and linebacker Will Anderson. The Texans have won 4-of-5. Beating the Jaguars won’t be easy, though. Jacksonville’s D handled Stroud and the Texans earlier in the season via a 37-17 Jaguars’ win. Trevor Lawrence and his mates make breathing room in the division.

NFL Week 12 Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts -1.5

Since starting the season going 3-1 straight up, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have since lost 5-of-6. Tampa will be in rebuild mode this summer.

The Colts aren’t a great football team, but Indy is .500. Also, Garnder Minshew and his buds have won two straight. Colts get the win and cover.

NFL Week 12 Pick: Indianapolis colts -1.5
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New England Patriots -3.5 at New York Giants

Why are the Patriots road favorites against the New York Giants? Seriously, though, the Giants historically play the Pats tough.

Also, the G-Men head into this off a fantastic victory over the rival Washington Commanders and the Patriots are one of this season’s most dysfunctional teams.

NFL Week 12 Pick: New York Giants +3.5

Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans -4

The Panthers should redshirt Bryce Young. That’s a kind of saying that Carolina should send the top pick in this past April’s Draft to the bench.

Young’s confidence is growing worse. He completed 55% of his passes versus the Cowboys in NFL Week 10. In NFL Week 11, Bryce completed a terrible 53% of his passes against the Chicago Bears.

One of the reasons for Bryce’s lack of confidence is that unlike C.J. Stroud, who gets to play behind a line that includes the fantastic Laremy Tunsil at left tackle, the Panthers have an awful O-line. Benching Young is the way to go. But since Carolina won’t do that, the young gunslinger will struggle again and the Panthers will lose after scoring 10 or less points again.

NFL Week 12 Pick: Tennessee Titans -4
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L.A. Rams at Arizona Cardinals -1.5

The Rams got the win against a much better team than Arizona this past Sunday. LAR beat the Seattle Seahawks 17-16.

The Cardinals are a better team with Kyler Murray back at quarterback, but the Rams are healthier across board as much as they have been at any time this season. Also, running back Royce Freeman is averaging 4.3 yards per carry, which should take pressure off Matthew Stafford.

NFL Week 12 Pick: L.A. Rams +1.5

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos -2.5

Rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson led the Browns to a win against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but Pittsburgh has one of the league’s worst offenses, which is why Matt Canada got his walking papers.

After starting the season going 1-5 SU, the Broncos are on a 4-game winning streak and are just 2 games behind the Broncos in the AFC West. Denver has gelled big time. Broncos easily manage this spread. 

NFL Week 12 Pick: Denver Broncos -2.5
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Kansas City Chiefs -9 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs have lost 2-of-3. KC’s issues are on the offensive side where they’ve scored 9, 21, and 17 points in their last 3 games.

Versus the Philadelphia Eagles this past Monday night, the best the Chiefs could do was score 17 even though Philly isn’t great against the pass. To make matters more interesting in this, the Raiders are playing with gusto, going 3-0 against the spread in their last 3. Don’t be surprised if Vegas wins straight up.

NFL Week 12 Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +9

Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles -3.5

The Bills head Philadelphia feeling pretty good about where their offense is. In their first game without Ken Dorsey calling the shots, the Bills blasted the Jets 32-6. But hanging with the Jets and taking it to the Eagles in Philly are two very different things.

Philadelphia played great when beating KC 21-17 in their last game. The Eagles are on a mission, which means Jalen Hurts and his mates get the win and cover.   

NFL Week 12 Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
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Baltimore Ravens at L.A. Chargers

NBC’s and Peacock’s Sunday night game pits the high-flying Baltimore Ravens against the lowly L.A. Chargers. Sure, the Chargers are good enough to win the Super Bowl.

Yeah, right. The Bolts underperform like crazy. Brandon Staley keeps talking about how he believes in the game plans he sets each week, and how the players have confidence, blah, blah, blah.

The truth is that the Bolts aren’t a good football team because Staley can’t get the most out of his squad. When it comes to containing Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, forget it. The Edgar Allan Poes are going to dominate the Bolts the way Carla Gugino’s character did those awful people in The Fall of House Usher on Netflix.

NFL Week 12 Pick: Baltimore Ravens -4

NFL Monday Night Football –  November 27

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Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings -3.5

Bears versus Vikings, at least on paper, should be an interesting game. However, the Vikings are one of the NFC’s best teams.

If not for some unlucky bounces this past Sunday night, Minnesota may have beaten the Denver Broncos. A win over the Broncos would have been Minnesota’s sixth straight victory. No doubt, Chicago is a much better team with Justin Fields at QB.

Joshua Dobbs, though, is proving what a savvy veteran at quarterback can do for your team. Vikings cover.

NFL Week 12 Pick: Minnesota Vikings -3.5