Super Bowl Betting Odds: Kansas City the Favorite to Repeat

The defending Lombardi Trophy champs will start their 2024 NFL Season the Super Bowl betting odds favorite to repeat. After an eventful offseason and intriguing preseason, the Kansas City Chiefs remain the chalk. Is KC a good bet to get it done? Check out the NFL Betting Man Super Bowl LVIII preview. 

Super Bowl LVIII Odds

• Kansas City Chiefs +600
• Philadelphia Eagles +800
• Buffalo Bills +900
• Cincinnati Bengals +1000
• San Francisco 49ers +1000
• Dallas Cowboys +1300
• Baltimore Ravens +1800
• New York Jets +1800
• Detroit Lions +2100
• Los Angeles Chargers +2100
• Miami Dolphins +2100
• Jacksonville Jaguars +2800
• Cleveland Browns +3000
• Minnesota Vikings +3500
• Seattle Seahawks +3500
• Green Bay Packers +4000
• New Orleans Saints +4000
• Denver Broncos +4500
• Pittsburgh Steelers +4500
• New York Giants +4800
• Atlanta Falcons +5500
• Chicago Bears +6000
• Tennessee Titans +6000
• Carolina Panthers +6000
• New England Patriots +6000
• Los Angeles Rams +6500
• Washington Commanders +6500
• Las Vegas Raiders +7500
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7500
• Indianapolis Colts +10000
• Arizona Cardinals +18000
• Houston Texans +18000

Why the Bengals are a better AFC play than the Chiefs

Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals made what should be the most impactful move of any NFL team during the offseason. The Bengals signed away Kansas City starting left tackle Orlando Brown Jr.

Brown Jr. can be credited to helping KC not only secure more Super Bowl rings, but also for Patrick Mahomes’ MVP winning season. Orlando Brown Jr. protected Mahomes’ blindside. 

Protecting a right-handed quarterback’s blindside has become one of the most important positions in football. For most of his NFL career, Burrow has had to play with decent, but not elite, left tackles.

Orlando Brown Jr. is an elite left tackle. Last season, Brown Jr. ‘s protection rate from NFL Week 10 on was over 88, which ranked Orlando third among all left tackles in the league at keeping defenders away from his quarterback.

If Brown Jr. does the same for Burrow, watch out. Joe Cool has had tremendous success playing behind suspect offensive lines, even taking the Bengals to the 2021 Super Bowl. 

On the flip side, Kansas City will replace Brown Jr. with 30-year-old Donovan Smith. The former Tampa Bay Buccaneer has had an already illustrious career. But Smith backpedaled in protection duties last season.

The former Buc isn’t the reason Tom Brady retired. He didn’t help in convincing Brady another season was possible, though.

Offensive tackle is one of the most grueling positions in the NFL. So we can’t blame Smith if his skills at 30 aren’t on par with the 23-year-old version. But facts are facts and the fact is Smith is a downgrade from Brown Jr.

Not only that, but in the battle between Magic Mahomes and Joe Cool, Burrow has had the upper hand. Cincinnati failed to close the door on Kansas City in last season’s AFC Championship. This season, because they signed Brown Jr., the Bengals may have the door already half-closed on the Chiefs before the season has started.  

Why the 49ers are a better play than the Eagles in the NFC

Making the case for the Cincinnati Bengals as a better Super Bowl pick than the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC is actually easier than making the case for the San Francisco 49ers as a better SB pick than the Philadelphia Eagles. 

Philly, the defending NFC champs, are an excellent squad. There are few flaws, but the one potential massive flaw could cost the Eagles this season.

The massive flaw is that the Eagles are light at linebacker. Haason Reddick is one of the best linebackers in the league. But after Haason, the word is out on former Georgia player Nakobe Dean and Nicholas Morrow.

Linebacker changeover isn’t the only reason Philly’s D could be worse in 2024. Darius Slay and James Bradberry are great corners. Safeties Reed Blankenship and Terrell Edmunds could struggle. Both are new to the team, which is also a reason the Eagles’ D may take a backward step this season.

Another reason to like San Francisco over the Eagles in the 2023-2024 NFL Season is because SF plays in the weaker division. The Eagles must contend with the Dallas Cowboys, Washington Commanders, and New York Giants in the loaded NFC East. 

All four NFC East teams are playoff caliber squads. Even D.C. has the ability to win the division, which means Philly won’t get a free pass with two easy wins versus Washington in 2023.

By contrast, two of the projected worst teams in the league play in the NFC West, San Francisco’s division. Neither the Los Angeles Rams nor the Arizona Cardinals should sniff the playoffs. The Cards are in such a precarious situation that they’re going to start either career backup Joshua Dobbs or Houston Cougars rookie Clayton Tune at QB in NFL Week 1. 

Seattle will be a solid club. The Seahawks, though, aren’t on San Francisco’s level. We know SF’s D will be one of the best in the league. So if Brock Purdy turns into a mini-Joe Montana, the San Francisco 49ers should boast the NFL’s best regular season record heading into the playoffs.   

Why Josh Allen and the Bills are a bad Super Bowl odds bet

When oddsmakers first released Super Bowl odds for this season, the Buffalo Bills were fourth choice behind Kansas City, San Francisco, and Philadelphia.

Buffalo has climbed their way to third choice behind the Chiefs and Eagles. From the NFL Betting Man perspective, Buffalo is the AFC’s worst play to win the Super Bowl.

The main reason is the Bills’ odds. At +900, the Bills are an underlay. Buffalo will struggle to win their division and teams that struggle to win their division aren’t solid Super Bowl picks. 

They especially aren’t solid Super Bowl picks at odds of less than +1500. The past couple of seasons, the Bills were a lock to win the AFC East. But not this season.

The Jets, Dolphins, and even Patriots will make life hard for Buffalo. If the Bills don’t win the AFC East, there’s no guarantee they even make the playoffs. 

Also, Josh Allen struggles in the playoffs. So even if the Bills make the NFL’s postseason, Allen must turn around his recent playoff struggles. If the odds were higher, a bite would make sense. But at +900, the Bills are a pass.  

Why Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are a bad Super Bowl betting odds play

Like the Bills in the AFC East, it’s difficult to endorse third NFC choice Dallas to win Super Bowl 58. The Cowboys have the talent to win the Lombardi. 

But Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott is an interception throwing machine. If Dak doesn’t cut down on the picks, Dallas won’t win in the playoffs.

Also, the Boys have the same problem the Eagles have in the sense the Giants and Commanders are better this season than they were last season. Dallas is an underdog to win the NFC East over the chalky Philadelphia Eagles. 

Teams that don’t win their division are toss ups to secure wildcard berths. In addition, although the odds are higher on the Boys than the Bills, they’re underlaid given the barriers the Cowboys have to win the NFL trophy. 

Top Super Bowl Odds Underdog Plays

Detroit Lions +2100

The Detroit Lions are an average defense away from being a +1000 Super Bowl contender. The defense must only give second-year end Aidan Hutchinson help to hold opponents to 24 points or less to be an SB favorite.

The Lions have the look of the 2009 New Orleans Saints. Drew Brees and the Saints offense ensured a Super Bowl win even though the defense, although not bad, was by no means great. 

Detroit can be that team. Jared Goff, Alabama rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, and wide receiver Amon Ra St-Brown will light up scoreboards. So the defense must only be okay for the Lions to challenge the Eagles and 49ers for the NFC title. 

Jacksonville Jaguars +2800

Most non-Jaguar NFL fans believe Jacksonville is a year away. We don’t. Jacksonville is an overlay at 28-to-1 odds to win Super Bowl LVIII. 

The Super Bowl odds make the Jags the best underdog play in the AFC. Jacksonville has the tools to lockdown an SB victory because Trevor Lawrence has become one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks.

Not only that, 2023 will be Lawrence’s second season in Super Bowl winning coach Doug Pederson’s system. Pederson won a Super Bowl with Nick Foles at quarterback. For sure, Doug can win a Super Bowl with one of the league’s top QB’s calling the shots.

On paper, the Jaguars’ have a top five defense. If Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd take the next step, the Jaguars will boast the NFL’s best front seven because Josh Allen is a top three linebacker. 

Green Bay Packers +4000

If Aaron Rodgers remained in Green Bay instead of going to the New York Jets, the Packers would be a +1000 Super Bowl odds choice. But because Jordan Love is the quarterback and not AR, the Pack are at +4000.

Quarterback is the most important position in football. But a +3000 odds difference because of a single position change doesn’t make sense.

It especially doesn’t make sense given Love’s development. Jordan looked great during the preseason, throwing for 193 yards and 3 touchdowns without tossing a pick. If Love steps it up, the team will rock because at every other position, Green Bay is set. 

New Orleans Saints +4000

The +4000 odds on the New Orlean Saints make even less sense than the +4000 on the Packers. The Saints pulled off the second most impactful free agent signing of the offseason when N’Awlins convinced Vegas quarterback Derek Carr to take his considerable skills to the Big Easy.

Carr gets to throw to one of the best young wide receivers in the NFL in Chris Olave, a proven veteran in Michael Thomas, and can hand the ball off to one of the top running backs in the league in Alvin Kamara. 

Not only that, but the Saints’ offensive line ranks in the top fifteen Head coach Dennis Allen is a former defensive coordinator. So the defense is also good. 

Denver Broncos +4500

Sean Payton had his choice of head coaching jobs. Many teams in the NFL were ready to hand the reins of their franchise over to Payton, the former New Orleans Saints head coach who won the 2010 Super Bowl.

Sean chose Denver for a couple of reasons. First, the Broncos have a stellar defense, a top five unit, which means Sean wouldn’t have to worry about that side of the football. Second, Payton believed he could turn around Russell Wilson’s career. 

In 2022, Wilson landed in Denver with much fanfare but Russ had a terrible season. The first thing Payton did when he signed with Denver was tell Wilson his personal quarterback coach was no longer welcome at practices.

So far, Wilson has bought into the Payton Way. If Russ goes back to playing his best ball, the Broncos will boast one of the league’s top offenses and one of the NFL’s best defenses.